My 2020-2030 prediction

A friend, hi Andy, was talking about business and investment opportunities in the coming years. I blurted this out as a text message but thought I might record it here on my blog to look back on in 8 years time.

The 2020’s - in Australia and the western world - Will be marked by a couple of significant factors.

– Number one will be high interest rate policy, HIRP, after a decade of low interest-rate policy, LIRP, interest rates will start to rise and this is going to change a lot of things economically - hopefully positively - for the world. My uneducated guess is that it’s going to be a time of slightly more wealth distribution. Low interest-rate policy takes the wealth out of the centre, high interest policy will spread it around more and create more opportunities financially.

  • Secondly, there will be a very significant change in the mindsets of people to live for the moment. This means short-term gratification, short-term wins, short-term growth, will be favourable and long-term success will be less popular. There are opportunities here to take advantage of those people.

  • Thirdly, experiences like travel and other in person experiences will have a very high growth rate after we’ve been locked up for a while. We want and need to connect with our history, our people, our families and friends.

  • Finally, media and communication, social networks, and how we use technology to live, is going to change dramatically with a shift away from Facebook and Google and Microsoft, and there will be a move towards deeper online experiences in smaller niche communities. This is another real opportunity for investment and growth. A good example of this is the company unity who is listed in America under the stock code U. They just purchased Weta in NZ and that positions them amazingly to creat in real time 3D worlds, entertainment experiences like a movie or TV show, and of course games which I already involved in. In the past where you would think of an idea like a TV show and then you would write it, and then you would have to cast and film it. In the future with technology like unity is working on your then just program the script into the system and then you’ll have a TV show. So many massive opportunities in how we experience life and entertainment.

One bonus point: weed. As that’s decriminalised there’s big opportunities imho.